For gamblers, apparently the only bet safer than continued legal weed in Mass is that the governor will win reelection
Some of us are terrified about Massachusetts Ballot Question 8. Despite the clear social and economic benefits of adult-use cannabis, it is conceivable that the majority of voters could turn against dispensaries amidst the anti-marijuana media and smear ads, prohibitionist-driven voter confusion, and genuine vitriol from those who have forever scorned the dreaded reefer.
Many folks, however, including some cannabis stakeholders with millions of dollars on the line, aren’t very nervous at all, and are simply going about business as usual. A lot of their rationale stems from two polls, most recently one via UMass Amherst/WCVB. Based on responses from 800 registered voters and conducted from Aug. 5 to Aug. 12 with a margin of error of 4.4%, it has Question 8 failing miserably. Broken down, 15% “Would Definitely Vote Yes,” 18% “Would Probably Vote Yes,” and 10% are “Undecided,” while 15% “Would Probably Vote No,” 40% “Would Definitely Vote No,” and 3% “Do Not Understand Ballot Question.”
Every news outlet in town echoed the alleged good news for pot shops. I’m more cautious though, and essentially view the UMass poll like I did a prior poll of 670 voters in February, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. It was widely cited how in that one, 20% of respondents said they “Strongly Support” (11%) or “Somewhat Support” (9%) Question 8, meaning they want to see adult-use dispensaries close. But the other 80% was dangerously parsed between “Neutral/No Opinion” (9%), “Somewhat Oppose” (15%), “Strongly Oppose” (48%), and “Don’t Know/Not Sure” (7%).
Add up everyone who isn’t dead set against the measure in that first survey, and it’s too close for comfort. Just like relying on the 15% who “Would Probably Vote No” in the latest poll. And while I have my concerns about so much seemingly worthless academic polling, I nonetheless thought to look to another realm of curious prediction: the betting markets. Or, more specifically (at least for this post), I checked out Kalshi, where a cousin noticed there has been some kicking around Massachusetts politics including the marijuana ballot question.
As a quick aside, I don’t really gamble, especially on shit like this. Like a lot of other losers, I’ll drop a few bucks on roulette if I have had some drinks, am on vacation or a work trip, and there is a casino nearby. But I’ve never bet on the color of a celebrity’s thong at the Met Gala, or on which cartoonish antagonist is the next to be killed off in Trump world. Nor do I plan on starting to wager between now and Election Day. Still, there’s not exactly lots of info out there about the initiative, so I’ll take what I can get …
In prediction markets, a dollar represents 100% certainty. At the time of this writing on Sept. 7, Kalshi traders are betting against Question 8, resulting in the cost of a “No” vote hitting in the higher-end, around 86-92 cents. Translation: there is roughly an 86-92% belief that the measure will lose. And there’s not much to win besides continued access to legal cannabis; by those odds, if you bet $10, you’ll only get about 75 additional cents to spend at the dispensaries which stay open.
On the flipside, buying “Yes On Question 8” will cost you as little as 14 cents per share (known as a “contract” on Kalshi). Gamblers aren’t trying to pay that much though, with the few traders looking for “Yes” shares only bidding up to 8 cents per contract. There’s not exactly lots of action—on either side, to be fair—but the odds could be enticing. If you bet $10 predicting that Question 8 passes, you stand to win more than $50 to spend at all of the bars which will surely be celebrating.
By comparison, in the race for Massachusetts governor, Kalshi had the odds of incumbent Gov. Maura Healey defeating Republican challenger Mike Minogue at 96%—even higher than No On 8 by several points. Whereas on the marijuana referendum I still wouldn’t bet the farm, literally or figuratively, yay or nay, I am as confident as the spread setters that as long as Donald Trump is President of the United States, the commonwealth will keep a Democrat on top of Beacon Hill.
